The writer below seems to have forgotten the famous observation by Lord Keynes: “In the long term we are all dead”. So while his data is interesting, his conclusions are flawed
As the debate over illegal immigration from Mexico rages in Washington and across the country, and as the administration’s reform bill hangs by a thread, few Americans are aware that this problem will automatically decline and eventually become a vague memory.
There has been a stunning decline in the fertility rate in Mexico, which means that, in a few years there will not be many teenagers in Mexico looking for work in the United States or anywhere else. If this trend in the fertility rate continues, Mexico will resemble Japan and Italy – rapidly aging populations with too few young workers to support the economy.
According to the World Bank’s 2007 Annual Development Indicators, in 1990 Mexico had a fertility rate of 3.3 children per female, but by 2005, that number had fallen by 36 percent to 2.1, which is the Zero Population Growth rate. That is an enormous decline in the number of Mexican infants per female. The large number of women currently in their reproductive years means that there are still quite a few babies, but as this group ages, the number of infants will decline sharply. If this trend toward fewer children per female continues, there being no apparent reason for it to cease, the number of young people in the Mexican population will decline significantly just when the number of elderly is rising. As labor markets in Mexico tighten and wage rates rise, far fewer Mexican youngsters will be interested in coming to the United States. Since our baby boomers will be retiring at the same time, we could face a severe labor shortage.
There have been significant declines in fertility rates across Latin America, but Mexico’s has been unusually sharp. In El Salvador, another country from which immigrants come, a 3.7 rate in 1990 became 2.5 by 2005. Guatemala is now at 4.3, but that is far lower than it was in 1990. Jamaica, another source of illegal U. S. immigrants, has fallen from 2.9 to 2.4 over the same period. Chile and Costa Rica, at 2.0, are actually slightly below a replacement rate. Trinidad and Tobago, at 1.6, is well below ZPG. For all of Latin American and the Caribbean, a rate of 3.2 in 1990 fell to 2.4 in 2005, a decline of 25 percent. This means less pressure on the United States from illegal immigrants from the entire area, not just from Mexico. A powerful demographic transition is well underway, and soon many of these countries may be worried about there being too few babies rather than too many. We may miss this labor, and wonder how we will replace it.
What is going on in Latin America? Better education and improved job opportunities for women mean that it has become quite expensive for them to leave the labor force to have more children. The improved availability of birth control technology and liberalization of abortion rules in some countries mean that it is easier for women to avoid that outcome.
Fertility rates are declining across the globe, but the change is particular striking to our south. The world fertility rate fell from 3.1 to 2.6 over the 1990-2005 period. The population bomb is becoming a fire cracker.
Another reason for the particularly sharp decline in Mexico is the cultural influence of the United States. Our xenophobic nationalists fear that we are being ‘Mexicanized.’ In fact the opposite may be underway. NAFTA, our mass media, the more widespread use of English, and the large number of people going back and forth (legally or otherwise) mean that Mexicans are increasingly influenced by our culture, and that implies fewer babies. The United States also has a fertility rate of 2.1, but that is the same as it was in 1990. Mexico is becoming more similar to the United States, which must frustrate their nationalists.
The main point for the United States is that we have only a temporary problem with illegal immigration from Mexico. For another decade or a bit more we must attempt to limit such entry, but then the problem will fade like the smile on the Cheshire Cat. Lou Dobbs, Rep. Tancredo and their xenophobic friends can calm down and relax.
May 14, 2009 at 5:16 am
I’ll believe it when I see this, I’ve heard it is true that Mexico’s Birth Rate is very low, but their is one issue that people are not considering, and that is Mexico’s Collapse!! If the government falls they will flood the US! That will bring demographic death for whites and blacks in the southwestern United States, So this problem is far from over I think!!
July 23, 2009 at 12:01 pm
Many Americans are under the wrong impression that immigration of Mexicans to the U.S. is due to a high birth rate in Mexico. This is far from the truth. First, Mexico has made remarkable progress in lowing its birthrate in the last 20 years – especially when we recognize the strong opposition from the official Catholic Church. Secondly, Mexico also provides public health services to all its people – low income Mexican women pay far less for birth control and it is readily available to all women than American women, many of whom lack health insurance.
July 29, 2009 at 8:33 am
In the long term, immigration from Mexico to the USA will end when the standard of living in Mexico reaches 70 per cent of the US standard… At present the USA is 5 times richer but in 15 years time.. but say, 2025 the diiferential will be much less.. In fact, Mexico will be SHORT of labor after 2025 and will become a country of immigration itself.
compare with Spain .. In 1984 Spain joined the EU and one million people left to work in richer economies like the UK.. but 1990, the exodus had ended and Spaniards were heading back to Spain to take advantage of the improved wages and nice weather. By 1998, immigrants were flooding into Spain and by 2007 there were 6 million immigrnats ( and 40 million Sapnish ). One million of the immigrants were from the UK.
Don’t fret about Mexican immigration. the worst is over and will decline every year for the next 15 years, the number will drop to zero by 2025. If I were Mexican, I would prefer to work for 70 per cent of my US wages and live in a hot climate and speak my own language.
Here is a prophecy.. By 2020, there will be a net inflow of US elderly baby -boomers escaping high costs in Florida and California and heading for Yucatan.. Its cheaper and warmer.. The Mexicans will be the ones complaining about immigrants taking over THEIR country… ah ah ha
August 10, 2009 at 12:40 am
i don’t think mexican population decrease will bring any automatic change in migration levels to america.Because mexican leaders have been neglecting the enormous inequality gap exsisting in their contry.
January 9, 2010 at 6:02 am
Not taken into account is the higher birthrate of Mexicans who migrate to the United States, who I think are at around 3.1 children per woman. Could mass migration to the U.S. disguise continued high birth rates?
March 15, 2010 at 12:54 am
[...] birthrate falling rapidly This report by Immigration Watch International, states that the Mexican birthrate is falling rapidly, with major implications. "According to [...]
July 5, 2010 at 1:57 am
I don’t care about Mexico’s hot weather. You can have it. Just go back to Mexico.